Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Is it just me, or does the news get more surreal each week?
27 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Missouri Governor’s race. Leans Democrat, but not overwhelmingly. I doubt Blunt will make an arnold like comeback, and is still unpopular based on state issues, but has become personally more popular. In addition nixon is a good fit for the state and the last four polls have a pattern approval. I think somewhere inbetween the SUSA and Rasmussen poll shows where the race is.
That would be CA-04, CA-11, CA-26 (my home turf, and I am 110% for fellow Rancho Cucamongan Russ Warner!), and CA-50. I am also keeping an eye on other districts that are harder for us to switch, namely those of Lewis, Miller, Calvert, Bono, and Rohrabacher.
on a number of Ohio districts:
OH-15, OH-12, 0H-01, OH-02.
A number of them can truly flip this time around.
And OH-18 appears to be staying in the DEM fold.
The AFL-CIO has endorsed Gary, in their earliest Congressional endorsement ever.
In an email to supporters, Gary said that since he has entered the race the 9th District has become one of the nation’s top targeted races. Polling confirms that Peters is one of the strongest Democratic challengers anywhere in the country.
It is the most fantastic place to be right now! And Minnesota is a prime prime place within our region.
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, one of the Senatorial candidates, came to my College Dem’s meeting on Thursday and I have never been so inspired by a politician. I really hope he wipes the floor with Franken and Ciresi, he is my only hope for truly taking back Wellstone’s seat.
Michelle Bachmann is still a horrible woman and her huge flops is definitely going to make for some great attack ads. I dont know if we’ll beat her but we will certainly make the NRCC have to focus some cash on her.
Jim Ramstad is out! What a swing district, I cannot wait to see this seat go blue.
Although, this seat now being way open makes it even harder to take out Bachmann, more MN Democrat money to given to CD3 and more of the Twin City progressives will volunteer there instead of CD6, especially since Bachmann’s opponent may be quite non-progressive but the guy who can win.
Walz could be in trouble too, which means give 3/8th of our seats will be hard fought, plus our Senate race is a big one, and we are still a battleground state for President (although maybe not nearly as much this time as in 2000 and in 2004, we were very reliably blue in the 90’s).
Rumors are John Kline in CD2 may get a tougher challenge than normal from an Iraq war veteran.
Woooo Midwest!
Radical conservative Tim Walberg is getting a tough challenge from state Senate Democratic Leader Mark Schauer. His website, MarkSchauer.com, is still under construction, but I encourage you to donate through ActBlue from his site.
My home state has some big races too- Jim Gerlach (6 PA CD) and Charlie Dent (15 PA CD) are Republicans in swing districts. Will Hillary help Lois Murphy in 2000? The Gerlach-Murphy races of 2004 (51.0-49.0) and 2006 (50.6-49.4) were very close and Gerlach won by razor-thin margins.
I think the biggest pickup opportunities for 2008 are:
Charlie Brown (CA-4)
Eric Massa (NY-26)
Dan Maffei (NY-25)
Kay Barnes (MO-6)
Larry Kissell (NC-8)
Vic Wulsin (OH-2)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
John Boccieri (OH-16)
Darcy Burner (WA-8)
Gary Peters (MI-9)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
If Chris Shays retires, that’s going to be a pickup.
The Democrats’ strategy should be to make the Republicans pay so much cash in districts that wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive (the 50 State Strategy) before but with great quality candidates (like Sestak, Patrick Murphy here in PA) preferably with military experience so they will be better at understanding military and defense issues and won’t be targets of Republicans on national security.
I see 2010 as being a tough year if Hillary wins in 2008 and let’s face it, if a Democrat is becoming President in 2008 it’s going to be her. She’s sweeping the primary. That much is simple now. The Republicans are already attacking her as if the election was this year.
I think the weakest districts for Democrats are the two in Georgia, the two pickups from last year in Arizona.
I am going to predict that Aaron Schock wins Ray LaHood’s district which will take away a moderate Republican.
The Republican Party is going to increasingly become a conservative party while the Democratic Party will be the party of everything- progressives, moderates, and conservatives. This is bad because there is no balance anymore. If the Republicans win, everything has to turns over to the hard right wing.
The Republicans have become the party of “No”. Everything they oppose – environment, healthcare, global warming, human rights, gay rights, unions, and what’s worse they always vote against the people, against the everyday working person. The party stands for right-wing religious fundamentalists and for the rich elite. There needs to be a third party to launch a two-pronged attack on the right wing and strengthen the center.
There’ll be more news coming out of the 7th District soon. That’s your cryptic message for the evening. 🙂
NJ standards.
OH-15, AZ-1, MN-3, IL-11 and VA-11 all go blue with probably quite a few more open seats still to come up.
Best chances at incumbents are Doolittle, Shays, Reichert, Gerlach, Wilson, Walsh, Hayes, Buchanan, Knollenberg, Walberg, Ferguson, Porter, Musgrave, and Kuhl with plenty of other chances elsewhere.
Most endangered Dems are Lampson, Mahoney, Marshall, Barrow, Carney, Boyda, McNerney, Space, Kagen, Altmire, and Shea-Porter though I would be surprised if more than 5 of these lost in a worst case scenario.
Am looking at gains of 10-15 in the House and 5-7 in the Senate at the moment though of course things could change.
Wow, I just discovered this website a few days ago and it’s like perfect for the political junkie that I am.
I made a partial list of House races to watch, actually:
STATE-DISTRICT incumbent (?? = I can’t remember off the top of my head, and I’m too lazy to look it up on Wikipedia right now, although when I made this list I was on an airplane)
AK-AL Young
ID-01 Sali
WY-AL Cubin
AZ-?? Renzi
KS-02 Boyda
IN-08 Ellsworth (I’m including this purely because it IS the “Bloody Eighth”)
IN-?? Hill (let’s see how much this seat switches hands between those same two people)
OH-01 Chabot
OH-02 “Mean Jean”
OH-15 Pryce
OH-1? Space
GA-08 and GA-12 I can’t remember which is Barrow and which is Burns
FL-13 Buchanan
FL-16 Mahoney
NM-02? Wilson
TX-22 Lampson
NH-02 Shea-Porter
CT-02 Simmons (the smallest margin of victory in 2006 is definitely worth a second look)
CT-04 Shays
NC-08 Hayes (the second-smallest margin of victory in 2006…and for an flip-flopping incumbent, no less)
…and a bunch more in CA, PA, and NY, which I haven’t sorted out in my head yet.
Personally, in 2006, I was most interested in the following House races: WY-AL, IN-whatever, OH-02, TX-22, FL-16, NC-08.
As for the Senate, I actually wrote up a list of all the candidates and includes my predictions somewhere. Not sure if this is the right place to put it, but whatever.
I am devastated by this news but Angie Paccione announced today that she will no longer stand for the Democratic nomination to oppose the re-election of Marilyn “obsessed with gays” Musgrave in the 4th Congressional District in Colorado. I would have trouble placing CO-4 on the watch list at this point truth be told and that breaks by heart given how evil and awful Musgrave is as a human being much less as a Member of Congress.
Missouri Governor’s race. Leans Democrat, but not overwhelmingly. I doubt Blunt will make an arnold like comeback, and is still unpopular based on state issues, but has become personally more popular. In addition nixon is a good fit for the state and the last four polls have a pattern approval. I think somewhere inbetween the SUSA and Rasmussen poll shows where the race is.
That would be CA-04, CA-11, CA-26 (my home turf, and I am 110% for fellow Rancho Cucamongan Russ Warner!), and CA-50. I am also keeping an eye on other districts that are harder for us to switch, namely those of Lewis, Miller, Calvert, Bono, and Rohrabacher.
on a number of Ohio districts:
OH-15, OH-12, 0H-01, OH-02.
A number of them can truly flip this time around.
And OH-18 appears to be staying in the DEM fold.
The AFL-CIO has endorsed Gary, in their earliest Congressional endorsement ever.
In an email to supporters, Gary said that since he has entered the race the 9th District has become one of the nation’s top targeted races. Polling confirms that Peters is one of the strongest Democratic challengers anywhere in the country.
It is the most fantastic place to be right now! And Minnesota is a prime prime place within our region.
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, one of the Senatorial candidates, came to my College Dem’s meeting on Thursday and I have never been so inspired by a politician. I really hope he wipes the floor with Franken and Ciresi, he is my only hope for truly taking back Wellstone’s seat.
Michelle Bachmann is still a horrible woman and her huge flops is definitely going to make for some great attack ads. I dont know if we’ll beat her but we will certainly make the NRCC have to focus some cash on her.
Jim Ramstad is out! What a swing district, I cannot wait to see this seat go blue.
Although, this seat now being way open makes it even harder to take out Bachmann, more MN Democrat money to given to CD3 and more of the Twin City progressives will volunteer there instead of CD6, especially since Bachmann’s opponent may be quite non-progressive but the guy who can win.
Walz could be in trouble too, which means give 3/8th of our seats will be hard fought, plus our Senate race is a big one, and we are still a battleground state for President (although maybe not nearly as much this time as in 2000 and in 2004, we were very reliably blue in the 90’s).
Rumors are John Kline in CD2 may get a tougher challenge than normal from an Iraq war veteran.
Woooo Midwest!
Radical conservative Tim Walberg is getting a tough challenge from state Senate Democratic Leader Mark Schauer. His website, MarkSchauer.com, is still under construction, but I encourage you to donate through ActBlue from his site.
My home state has some big races too- Jim Gerlach (6 PA CD) and Charlie Dent (15 PA CD) are Republicans in swing districts. Will Hillary help Lois Murphy in 2000? The Gerlach-Murphy races of 2004 (51.0-49.0) and 2006 (50.6-49.4) were very close and Gerlach won by razor-thin margins.
I think the biggest pickup opportunities for 2008 are:
Charlie Brown (CA-4)
Eric Massa (NY-26)
Dan Maffei (NY-25)
Kay Barnes (MO-6)
Larry Kissell (NC-8)
Vic Wulsin (OH-2)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
John Boccieri (OH-16)
Darcy Burner (WA-8)
Gary Peters (MI-9)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
If Chris Shays retires, that’s going to be a pickup.
The Democrats’ strategy should be to make the Republicans pay so much cash in districts that wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive (the 50 State Strategy) before but with great quality candidates (like Sestak, Patrick Murphy here in PA) preferably with military experience so they will be better at understanding military and defense issues and won’t be targets of Republicans on national security.
I see 2010 as being a tough year if Hillary wins in 2008 and let’s face it, if a Democrat is becoming President in 2008 it’s going to be her. She’s sweeping the primary. That much is simple now. The Republicans are already attacking her as if the election was this year.
I think the weakest districts for Democrats are the two in Georgia, the two pickups from last year in Arizona.
I am going to predict that Aaron Schock wins Ray LaHood’s district which will take away a moderate Republican.
The Republican Party is going to increasingly become a conservative party while the Democratic Party will be the party of everything- progressives, moderates, and conservatives. This is bad because there is no balance anymore. If the Republicans win, everything has to turns over to the hard right wing.
The Republicans have become the party of “No”. Everything they oppose – environment, healthcare, global warming, human rights, gay rights, unions, and what’s worse they always vote against the people, against the everyday working person. The party stands for right-wing religious fundamentalists and for the rich elite. There needs to be a third party to launch a two-pronged attack on the right wing and strengthen the center.
There’ll be more news coming out of the 7th District soon. That’s your cryptic message for the evening. 🙂
NJ standards.
OH-15, AZ-1, MN-3, IL-11 and VA-11 all go blue with probably quite a few more open seats still to come up.
Best chances at incumbents are Doolittle, Shays, Reichert, Gerlach, Wilson, Walsh, Hayes, Buchanan, Knollenberg, Walberg, Ferguson, Porter, Musgrave, and Kuhl with plenty of other chances elsewhere.
Most endangered Dems are Lampson, Mahoney, Marshall, Barrow, Carney, Boyda, McNerney, Space, Kagen, Altmire, and Shea-Porter though I would be surprised if more than 5 of these lost in a worst case scenario.
Am looking at gains of 10-15 in the House and 5-7 in the Senate at the moment though of course things could change.
Wow, I just discovered this website a few days ago and it’s like perfect for the political junkie that I am.
I made a partial list of House races to watch, actually:
STATE-DISTRICT incumbent (?? = I can’t remember off the top of my head, and I’m too lazy to look it up on Wikipedia right now, although when I made this list I was on an airplane)
AK-AL Young
ID-01 Sali
WY-AL Cubin
AZ-?? Renzi
KS-02 Boyda
IN-08 Ellsworth (I’m including this purely because it IS the “Bloody Eighth”)
IN-?? Hill (let’s see how much this seat switches hands between those same two people)
OH-01 Chabot
OH-02 “Mean Jean”
OH-15 Pryce
OH-1? Space
GA-08 and GA-12 I can’t remember which is Barrow and which is Burns
FL-13 Buchanan
FL-16 Mahoney
NM-02? Wilson
TX-22 Lampson
NH-02 Shea-Porter
CT-02 Simmons (the smallest margin of victory in 2006 is definitely worth a second look)
CT-04 Shays
NC-08 Hayes (the second-smallest margin of victory in 2006…and for an flip-flopping incumbent, no less)
…and a bunch more in CA, PA, and NY, which I haven’t sorted out in my head yet.
Personally, in 2006, I was most interested in the following House races: WY-AL, IN-whatever, OH-02, TX-22, FL-16, NC-08.
As for the Senate, I actually wrote up a list of all the candidates and includes my predictions somewhere. Not sure if this is the right place to put it, but whatever.
I am devastated by this news but Angie Paccione announced today that she will no longer stand for the Democratic nomination to oppose the re-election of Marilyn “obsessed with gays” Musgrave in the 4th Congressional District in Colorado. I would have trouble placing CO-4 on the watch list at this point truth be told and that breaks by heart given how evil and awful Musgrave is as a human being much less as a Member of Congress.
Story below: http://www.coloradop…